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“There
is an end to everything, to good things as well.” – Geoffrey Chaucer,
circa 1374
The quote from Chaucer isn’t particularly inspiring at
the start of a New Year, but it’s appropriate given how the U.S.
stock market ended 2015: Despite a rally during the fourth quarter,
the six-year streak of gains in stocks came to an end. The average diversified
U.S. stock fund lost 2.1% during the year. The bad news continued
with the average diversified foreign stock fund was 1.3% for the
year. The bright spot, if you want to call it that, was that bond
funds were nearly flat, with the average intermediate fund down only
0.1%.
“Uncertainty”, specifically how it relates to global financial
markets, might be a candidate for Word of the Year. Reasons for
uncertainty included the following:
- Would the Federal Reserve finally begin
raising interest rates? Spoiler: It did.
- How will the 2016 presidential election play
out? For now, it’s providing good material for SNL.
- Also, how long can Trump stay in the race?
Answer: Far longer than anyone expected.
- How will the big declines in China’s stock
market affect the rest of the world? Not well.
- Will the price of oil continue to fall? All
signs point to yes.
Was there any good news in 2015? Definitely:
- The U.S. economy continued to improve and
expand.
- Unemployment reached 5%, the lowest it’s been
in years.
- Total U.S. household net worth was $20
billion higher than the pre-recession peak in 2007.
- Star Wars: The Force
Awakens was surprisingly
good.
Many of the uncertainties that caused problems during
2015 will continue to affect us in the New Year. Financial markets
are on a rollercoaster ride, but I believe the U.S. economy looks
good when compared to other countries around the world. As usual, my
advice is to ignore the talking heads and instead focus on your own
goals.
I hope 2016 is off to a good start for you! Don’t forget to call me
if you or someone you know happens to win the $1.3 billion Powerball
jackpot. I strive to provide you with the tools and resources to help
you achieve your financial goals. Thank you for your trust and confidence.
Sincerely,
Chuck Donalies, CFP®
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